Raiders AFC Rule

Win the Heisman Trophy, get chosen No. 1 in the NFL draft, then do the obvious -- bypass a career as a running back and instead become a sportswriter.

That's what Jay Berwanger did 70 years ago. Don't look for columns by Reggie Bush anytime soon, however. The NFL is paying a tad bit better these days.

Bush, last season's Heisman Trophy-winning running back out of USC, is the probable No. 1 overall draft pick by the Houston Texans on Saturday when the draft begins.

"If they do something other than that, they'll be second-guessed forever," said an AFC personnel director, requesting anonymity. "Is he by far the best player in the draft? I don't know if you can say that, but he'll have the greatest impact in the NFL. You'd think he can do more things than anybody."

It's been quite a while since anyone's thought so highly of a running back. Should they?

Quarterbacks have occupied the No. 1 slot in the past five drafts and seven of the past eight. A running back hasn't gone first since the Cincinnati Bengals used the 1995 top pick on Ki-Jana Carter, whose knee promptly went ka-boom.

Scan through teams' stat sheets, examine past drafts, check the Hall of Fame archives, and you'll learn that drafting a running back high -- not just No. 1 overall -- doesn't always pay off.

"I agree," 49ers vice president of player personnel Scot McCloughan said. "If you go back and look, you'll see some third- and fourth-rounders, and you'll see you can find a guy that fits your system and you can win with him."

Running backs are mined throughout the two-day draft, and beyond. Just ask the Pittsburgh Steelers, whose starting running back in their Super Bowl XL victory in February was Willie Parker, whom they signed as an undrafted free agent in 2004.

Parker and 2001 rushing champion Priest Holmes, also undrafted, are exceptions in a league still surrounded by first-round running backs. Of the league's 32 franchises, 23 have drafted a running back in the first round over the past 10 years.

The 49ers and Raiders are among those that haven't. Dexter Carter (1990) and Terrence Flagler (1987) are the most recent running backs taken in the first round by the 49ers. The Raiders have taken only two first-round running backs -- Napoleon Kaufman (1995) and Marcus Allen (1982) -- since the AFL and NFL merged drafts in 1967.

These days, the 49ers are counting on third-round backs Kevan Barlow and Frank Gore, and the Raiders are keyed by LaMont Jordan, a second-round pick by the New York Jets in 2001.

Only 14 clubs were led in rushing in 2005 by a first-round back. All others relied on second-, third- or fourth-round backs, except for the Denver Broncos, who rediscovered 2000 sixth-round find Mike Anderson. The Broncos haven't drafted a first-round running back since 1985, the second-longest drought behind the Washington Redskins (1967).

That's not to say taking a running back in the first round won't pay dividends. After Terrell Davis, also a Broncos' sixth-round draft pick, won the league rushing title in 1998, a first-round running back has led the NFL in rushing six of the past seven years.

None, of course, was a No. 1 overall pick. The only running backs taken No. 1 in the 40-year-old Super Bowl era are Carter, Bo Jackson (1986), George Rogers (1981), Billy Sims (1980), Earl Campbell (1978), Ricky Bell (1977) and O.J. Simpson (1969). Rogers is the only one who reached a Super Bowl, though he had only five carries in the 1987 Broncos' title win.

After Berwanger spurned the Chicago Bears when they refused to meet his asking price -- $25,000 over two years -- 22 running backs went No. 1 overall in the following 69 drafts. Just five of those running backs became Hall of Famers, including Campbell and Simpson, although one of them, Paul Hornung, was a quarterback in college.

McCloughan doubts that the 6-foot, 201-pound Bush will be asked to carry the ball as much as the punishing Campbell, who averaged 19 carries per game.

That's not to say Bush won't get the ball often, as his receiving skills and even return capabilities make him a versatile threat.

"He'll be special his first year," McCloughan said.

Added ESPN draft analyst Mel Kiper Jr.: "This kid is unique. If he was just a running back with mediocre hands, he wouldn't be the No. 1 pick. He's No. 1 because he's a superlative runner. I compared him to Gale Sayers the first time I saw him running. Catching it, he's a like a wide receiver, and if he were just a wide receiver, he'd be a first-round pick."

Bush, a high school teammate of last year's No. 1 overall pick, 49ers quarterback Alex Smith, is flattered by comparisons to Sayers, Marshall Faulk and Barry Sanders.

As for any link to other highly drafted rushers who've floundered, Bush spins his way through that conversation as if he were facing the Fresno State defense.

"I don't know what happened to past running backs and why they weren't successful," Bush said at the February scouting combine. "But I know I'm going to be successful and I won't fail."

FIRST AID

Here's a look at the running backs selected in the first round of the past 10 drafts, followed by a sleeper pick:

• 2005: Ronnie Brown (No. 2, Dolphins), Cedric Benson (No. 4, Bears), Carnell Williams (No. 5, Buccaneers). Sleeper: Frank Gore (third round, No. 65, 49ers)

• 2004: Steven Jackson (No. 24, Rams), Chris Perry (No. 26, Bengals), Kevin Jones (No. 30, Lions). Sleeper: Willie Parker (undrafted, Steelers)

• 2003: Willis McGahee (No. 23, Bills), Larry Johnson (No. 27, Chiefs). Sleeper: Domanick Davis (fourth round, No. 101, Texans)

• 2002: William Green (No. 16, Browns), T.J. Duckett (No. 18, Falcons). Sleeper: Brian Westbrook (third round, No. 91, Eagles)

• 2001: LaDainian Tomlinson (No. 5, Chargers), Deuce McAllister (No. 23, Saints), Michael Bennett (No. 27, Vikings). Sleeper: Kevan Barlow (third round, No. 80, 49ers)

• 2000: Jamal Lewis (No. 5, Ravens), Thomas Jones (No. 7, Cardinals), Ron Dayne (No. 11, Giants), Shaun Alexander (No. 19, Seahawks), Trung Canidate (No. 31, Rams). Sleeper: Mike Anderson (sixth round, No. 189, Broncos)

• 1999: Edgerrin James (No. 4, Colts), Ricky Williams (No. 5, Saints). Sleeper: Olandis Gary (fourth round, No. 127, Broncos)

• 1998: Curtis Enis (No. 5, Bears), Fred Taylor (No. 9, Jaguars), Robert Edwards (No. 18, Patriots), John Avery (No. 29, Dolphins). Sleeper: Ahman Green (third round, No. 76, Seahawks)

• 1997: Warrick Dunn (No. 12, Buccaneers), Antowain Smith (No. 23, Bills). Sleeper: Corey Dillon (second round, No. 43, Bengals)

• 1996: Lawrence Phillips (No. 6, Rams), Tim Biakabutuka (No. 8, Panthers), Eddie George (No. 14, Oilers/Titans). Sleeper: Stephen Davis (fourth round, No. 102, Redskins)

FIRST AND FOREMOST?

Here's a list of the past 10 NFL rushing champions and where they were drafted:

• 2005: Shaun Alexander 1st round, 19th overall, 2000, Seahawks

• 2004: Curtis Martin (Jets) 3rd round, 74th overall, 1995, Patriots

• 2003: Jamal Lewis 1st round, 5th overall, 2000, Ravens

• 2002: Ricky Williams (Dolphins) 1st round, 5th overall, 1999, Saints

• 2001: Priest Holmes (Chiefs) undrafted, 1997, Ravens

• 2000: Edgerrin James 1st round, 4th overall, 1999, Colts

• 1999: Edgerrin James 1st round, 4th overall, 1999, Colts

• 1998: Terrell Davis 6th round, 196th overall, 1995, Broncos

• 1997: Barry Sanders 1st round, 3rd overall, 1989, Lions

• 1996: Barry Sanders 1st round, 3rd overall, 1989, Lions